In a recent statement, Jared Bernstein, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, affirmed that the United States is not currently experiencing a recession. Highlighting key indicators such as employment and retail sales, Bernstein stated that there are no signs of a looming economic downturn.
Looking ahead, Bernstein acknowledged the challenges of predicting the future but emphasized positive factors such as decreasing inflation and encouraging consumer behavior. He expressed confidence that the country is in a non-recessionary phase and believes there is momentum to sustain this stability.
Goldman Sachs’ chief economist also echoed this sentiment by reducing the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20%, down from the previous 25%. This assessment was significantly lower than the median prediction of 54% from surveyed forecasters in the Wall Street Journey survey.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed similar optimism, stating that she does not anticipate a recession. Yellen found recent consumer-price data to be encouraging, leading to a decline in concerns over an economic downturn following the release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI).
It is evident that recent economic data points to a resilient and non-recessionary state for the United States, as affirmed by key economists and analysts in the field.
