Data from the Department of Energy, set to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show a decrease in U.S. crude-oil stockpiles, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
The average of estimates from nine analysts and traders indicates that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have declined by 1.9 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 8. Eight of the forecasters are predicting a decrease, while one expects a week-on-week increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 4.4 million barrels to an increase of 1.3 million barrels.
Analysts also anticipate a fall in gasoline inventories by 300,000 barrels from the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
On the other hand, stocks of distillates, mostly diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.6 million barrels.
Refinery use likely fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous week to 92.9%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 1 percentage point to an increase of 0.8 percentage points.
Analyst Forecasts (in Millions of Barrels)
- Again Capital: -1.6 (crude), 1.4 (gasoline), 2.6 (distillates), 0.8 (refinery use)
- Commodity Research Group: -4.4 (crude), -0.7 (gasoline), 1.3 (distillates), -0.6 (refinery use)
- Confluence Investment Mgmt: -2.5 (crude), -1.0 (gasoline), 1.5 (distillates), -1.0 (refinery use)
- DTN: -1.5 (crude), 1.6 (gasoline), -0.5 (distillates), -0.5 (refinery use)
- Excel Futures: -2.5 (crude), 1.1 (gasoline), 1.8 (distillates), -0.8 (refinery use)
- Spartan Capital Securities: 1.3 (crude), -1.5 (gasoline), 1.1 (distillates), n/f (refinery use)
- Price Futures Group: -3.0 (crude), -3.0 (gasoline), -3.0 (distillates), 0.5 (refinery use)
- Ritterbusch and Associates: -1.5 (crude), 0.4 (gasoline), 1.5 (distillates), 0.3 (refinery use)
- Tradition Energy: -1.5 (crude), -1.0 (gasoline), -3.0 (distillates), n/f (refinery use)
Average: -1.9 (crude), -0.3 (gasoline), 0.4 (distillates), -0.2 (refinery use)
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.